legowrlds Whether it's Irish Chantix like a world. We are in lego world. I'm good tGD kameron What we love all the kids what we're on it. All the kids were all you [we] got all the kids there on an adventure a hunt [for] [lego]wrlds eyes [we] got all the kids there on an adventure a hunt [for] [lego]wrlds eyes exciting Yeah Like you can anything live on what https://pamdev.com/the-professional-poker-players/?
It looks like all weepy character it was thesaurus well, actually Minecraft pistols [I] I knew that One more fuzzy carrot is a carrot Eat the Carrot Where's my Ford? Come on You aren't going Tell me Spider-Man [soros] what exactly is it like baby spider? huh Actually, I am totally Spider Man I knew that I'm cracking table. How [could] you focus all these diamonds? [I] like you Yeah, you gotlegoPickaxe so heavy Now go money. Oh Oh, man, oh [Auntie] who your baby piggy, you know what you have big legs. Yeah, I also like your bacon meat What I? Just got word that they're gonna go hunting for a [hot] [dog] asaurus. Well, it [just] called pigs [my] [piece] [on] [a] toy ah Okay, it's a creep up and it's going to explode creeper the Minecraft gas attack track from hot wheels This track comes with a pig man gross and its own cart it's really cool because we are gonna use these carts that are based like hot wheels and you can stuff any of your Little minifigs from Minecraft inside and have them go on the track. Are you ready? If you look at the back of the box it shows you the track and all the cool [things] that it does enough of that, let's play Can it rain some toy some assembly required? While the Hobby kids are assembling the track. Let's take a look at the pig man So this is pig man. He's like half Skeleton half pig half man really weird, and it makes me wonder if He tastes like ham and bacon like I wonder but I would never eat it either. That's just nasty Then we have this car so right here. It kind of like grips the figure, so let's pop them in here Grip some just so okay, and you get right in the cart So we have this one car. We have it all put together. You know it's not fun. Just having one car We need more cars right got one for each [of] you Hobby frog has steven his it's just the packaging It's kind of cool and a creeper and a pig and I've got one with Alex But we're gonna open these up right now. Come on open money. Yeah Really cool cards, but wait a minute. [how] they they don't have their own minifigs Can you guys go [mine] [some] more and find more minifigs, okay? Go find some more in the mine for me, and we'll open up so many things This one have the armored up Steve Wow, good job guys that was some good mining. So we got some minifigs Huh, let's open these up and [put] them the [carts] and have some fun Hoppy frog found alex a black sheep and a squid Hobby Pig has a bat iron armor Stephen a villager and Hobby [bearer] has a ghast Diamond steel and an Endermite Kind of weird, so who do you guys want to ride your cards? Hmm You're gonna take the bat howdy frog who do you want to ride your car? I? Keep the sheep the sheep Howdy bear who do you want to write in your cart man? Okay guy, and you're right cool and in my cart hmm. Let me see let me look at our collection Here is our collection And wow we got a lot? Gold steve, I know it's breakable, but he's cool again K gold Steve here we go Let's see if we could defeat the guest [Baba] So he put the [carts] in here push this down and [it] fires them up the ramp. He goes around the loop ax t loop and wakes up the gas All I didn't do it. We needed more umph [oh] He's awake to see his eyes open up Once he's been awakened You turn this this way dude, and then you can try to start shooting the gas You got him in those little tentacles at the bottom to make his head explode We're gonna use pigman let's see if Big man can do it oh Man, I was awesome [Hobby] frog can you defeat the gas let's see if you can do it man? Always awake, yeah, my sheik in the basement. [oh] We didn't do it Arthur baby, yeah You have your bats let me see those bats Okay, moe and Joe oh, you woke him up. That's the first step Yeah Ready Hobby [bearer] let's see if you could do it with your little might get Kinda reminds me of silky on teen Titans.
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Denise RQ Numbers can feel really scary. I bet that if I asked this room how many of you were afraid, or didn't like, or were bad at maths and stats in school, I'd get at least 50% of hands up? Probably more. But numbers are becoming more important than ever.
We've all heard the word "big data" or "data science" and really, we're just at the infancy of our numbers and our data gathering. But so what navigate to this website? What does that mean for us? Well, it means that government, businesses, advertisers, media, and even some scientists are going to be using numbers and data to sway your opinion rightly and wrongly. And with enormous amounts of information, we run the risk of misinformation, or even more worrisome, disinformation. So what does that mean for the non maths-and-stats lovers? Are you just going to be bamboozled everyday? No. We're going to learn how this kind of maths isn't maths. It's simply critical thinking. It's learning how to spot the lies, the damned lies, and the statistics. And I'm going to show each and every one of you here today how to do that. So let's take our first situation: OJ Simpson, one of the most infamous criminal trials in American history. OJ Simpson was an NFL superstar accused of murdering his ex-wife, Nicole Simpson, and her lover, Ronald Lyle Goldman. During the trial, one of OJ's lawyers, and not the Kardashian but Alan Dershowitz, a famed legal mind in American law, made a very convincing statistical argument. He said that while it was known and definite that OJ abused Nicole, that it didn't matter. It was totally irrelevant. Because four million women in the United States are abused by their domestic partner every year, and of that four million, only one in 2,500 are then murdered by the domestic partner that abuses them. So the chance that OJ murdered Nicole is only one in 2,500. And you can't convict someone on a one-in-2,500 chance. But what the jury, and most definitely, the prosecution should have picked up on is that the statistic that Mr Dershowitz stated was completely irrelevant. It's what I call a "sample relevancy diversion." Let me explain. In Mr Dershowitz's situation, here's a group of living women who are abused by their domestic partner. What's the chance that the domestic partner that abuses them will then murder them? One in 2,500. But that's not our situation at all. At the time of the trial, Nicole Simpson was dead. She had already been murdered. So she's actually in the group of murdered women who were abused by their domestic partner. And of murdered women who were abused by their domestic partner, nine in ten of them were murdered by the domestic partner that abused them and not by some other member of society, some random murderer. So the chance that OJ killed Nicole was 90%, not one in 2,500. This is a sample relevancy diversion: point us at a group that's similar to the one we're talking about, state some statistic about them, when really, it's not the group we're talking about at all. In our case, the diversion sample was the living women who are abused by their domestic partner. The real sample, and the one Nicole was in, was murdered women who were abused by their domestic partner. So, now we've maligned lawyers and ruined any confidence in our justice system, let's move on to the media. I was sitting in a cafe, eating a bacon butty. It's the one Scottish dish I have truly adopted. (Laughter) And while I was smothering it in that delicious Brown sauce, I read that my chance of bowel cancer would increase by 20% if I ate that bacon butty. That was the newspaper headline. All of a sudden, there's some government guy on TV, talking about the "true perils of bacon," that we need to tax it, and every news outlet, as you can see, was also talking about that. But let's take a little bit of a closer look. While the headlines were fuzzy, the actual study said that if you eat two rashers of bacon every day, your chance of bowel cancer will increase by 20%. That's really scary. But the question that you should be asking is that it increases 20% from what? Well, regardless of how many bacon butties you eat, five in 100 people will suffer from bowel cancer in their lifetime. And if all 100 of those people eat a bacon butty sandwich every day, yes, it's true; your chance of bowel cancer increases by 20%. But what's 20% of five people? One person. So if all 100 people eat a bacon butty sandwich every day, instead of five in 100 getting bowel cancer, six in 100 will. Which is awful. Really awful. But it's not nearly as alarming as when the newspaper splash across a headline that you're going to increase your chance of bowel cancer by 20% if you eat a bacon sandwich. This is called "relative risk." Your chance of getting some disease is one in a billion, and a researcher says if you increase your wine consumption by two glasses a week, you increase your chance of the disease by 100%. But the chance of getting the disease is still only two in a billion. I think I'll keep drinking that wine. (Laughter) OK, we can't trust the media; we can't trust the justice system; I'm just going to win the lottery, buy some island in Barbados, and get away from it all. Somebody has to win, right? Right? Someone has to own that island? And as you can see, Camelot, the operator of the National Lottery, makes a nice buck off the back of our belief that somebody's got to win. I'll pay my two pounds, I will take my chances, I want that island. But what really are my chances? One in 45 million. That means nothing to me. I have no idea what that means. Do you? I don't think so. I mean, you could say you're more likely to be a movie star than win the lottery, or you're more likely to be killed by a flesh-eating bacteria - which is true - but that doesn't help me quantify 45 million. But David Spiegelhalter came up with a great example of how to quantify it using bathtubs. OK. Imagine you're in a bathroom, really imagine this. You are staring at your bathtub. It is filled, brimming over, with dry rice. Nothing fancy; just the dry rice you buy at the grocery store; brimming over. And you take one single grain of rice - I'm holding it in my hand - and you paint it gold. And you bury it somewhere in that bathtub. Bury it, deep in, cover it all back up with dry rice. Now you get people to walk into your bathroom door, pay you two pounds to close their eyes, stick their hand into that tub, and miraculously, with one lucky dip, pull out that one golden grain of rice. It's a pretty good business if you can convince people to give you two pounds to do that. (Laughter) If we really understood what 45 million meant, would we still play the Lotto? I did buy a Lotto ticket because the EuroMillions is 130 million this week, but I knew better, right? What all these situations and examples show is that you don't need to bring a calculator everywhere. You just need to have a little bit of critical thinking in the back of your mind. So if someone says something about a group, you say, "What group are we really talking about?" Someone says you have 100% increase in a disease if you eat a Mars bar; "100% increase from what?" Or, it's one in a million. Find some way to quantify to you what a million is. Spotting the lies, the damned lies, and the statistics isn't math. It's simply critical thinking. Really what this all means is that if something doesn't feel right - a number, a statistic, a study - it might not be. And now you have the tools to ask the right questions. So when someone says, "It's the truth. The data proves it. The numbers show it." It may not be the truth. Thank you. Question number one: Where are we? San Manuel Casino near San Bernardino, California. Some of you might remember this casino from such episodes as... I don't know. I don't remember the name of the episode or the number.
But we've been here before. And question number two is, why are we here again? Well, I needed to get out of the desert. And this casino is kind of the closest one in, like, the LA area. I think maybe Palm Springs is somewhat the same distance, but Needed to get out of the desert and couldn't really decide where to go. So just got in the car and started driving. Booked a hotel nearby, near here. And here we are play here. They have two 5/10 games running. So that's good. So I'm gonna hop in there. It's $1,500 max. I was a little bit indecisive about where I wanted to go. I really want to get to the East Coast, I want to get to Florida, I want to get to the Pacific Northwest, I want to get to Oklahoma. There's so many places. But... You know, when you're indecisive I feel like you just got to, just start. Just start doing something. So I just got my car and got out of the desert, like I said. It's the slowest time of the year for poker in Las Vegas, so anywhere. Anywhere outside of Vegas is good. Here we are. All right. Going to hop in the game. In for $1500. The usual drill. Let's go. All right, so poker is underway here. Three limps in this hand. I look down at A-10 offsuit on the button. Gonna try and punish these limpers, so I raise it up to $65. Only the hijack calls. So heads-up to a flop: A-8-3 with two clubs. He checked it to me, and... Pretty borderline I think here with A-10. I think a bet is certainly fine, but I decide to pot control here because this is one of the worst aces that I would be iso'ing here, I think, on the button versus three limpers. So I decide to check it back. Turn is the 9 of hearts which brings a second flush draw on board He checks it over to me again. So I feel like with all these draws on board and available, and him checking twice on such a wet board... Pretty sure I have the best hand here, so I go ahead and put out a bet. I put out $110. Interesting news is that he puts in a check raise. He raises $250. He's only got about $215 behind. So it's a really awkward situation. So many draws available on the board now, and like I said I feel like he would bet here with pretty good hands, just the board being so wet. So with that in mind and decide to make a call. Looking back I'm not too sure about this call here because since he's so short, and I'm probably not going to fold on a river brick or pretty much any river. It's gonna be tough for me to fold on pretty much any rivers. I feel like I should be just getting it in here on the turn. Anyway, I make the call and we see a J of Hearts on the river. Not my favorite river, but... We do have the 10 of hearts so we block flushes and straights. Seems like a fairly key card. He sticks his $215 in there, and I think about it a little bit. But it's so cheap now and I pretty much made up my mind on the turn anyway, so I call it off and... Unfortunately he rolls over pocket 3s for a flopped set. So I guess he played it pretty well and got me to give him the maximum. Got me to bet the turn. And not only that but call a check-raise. Not really enthusiastic about the way that I played this hand. So this hand I open up K-J offsuit to $30. Both blinds call. Three ways to a flop this time. 10-7-3 with two diamonds and one club. They check it to me. I decide to check it back. See what happens on the turn here. Turn seems like a good card. I make top pair on a J of clubs. Once again brings a backdoor flush draw. Two flush draws on board. They check it over to me. And even though it feels like my range is a little bit capped here because I would very likely bet 9-8 on this flop, Just going to bet it anyway. Hope I don't get put in too tough of a spot here. If I do I have to make some sort of a decision if I get check-raised. But I'm going to make a bet anyway. I bet $60. Only the big blind calls this time, so heads up to a river card: 5 of clubs. Third club on board. She checks it over to me, and... I feel like most players in straightforward games, they tend to lead out when they make their hand, so I feel like I probably still have the best hand here. So I go ahead and put in a value bet. Make it $110. Big blind thinks for a little bit and then makes the call. I show, and it's good. So I'm gonna take this one down. Alright next spot here. Open up pocket 10s from UTG+1. Only the small blind calls this time. We're seeing a heads-up flop of 7-6-3. Small blind checks it over to me. I think I make a fairly standard C-bet here of $35. Small blind calls. Turn is a 9 and small blind checks it over to me. I think a bet is certainly reasonable here but the board is fairly connected and I don't want to get to put in too tough of a spot once again. So being in position with an overpair and not wanting to be forced to call down some big bets If I do get put in a spot, I just decide to check it back. A little bit of pot control. River's a good card though; the river's an 8. So we make the straight. Not only that, but the small blind leads out for $110. Definitely not fearing a J-10 type hand in this spot with this run-out and having two 10s in my hand, so seems like a pretty obvious spot to go for some value. I put in a raise and make it $325. She calls pretty quickly. So I roll my hand over and... We're scoopin'. Next interesting hand here, another good-looking hand from early position. This time we find pocket Ks from UTG+1. Raised it up to $30 again. There's a middle position call, and the blinds call. So four ways to a flop this time. 7-6-4 with two spades. The blinds check it over to me, and I think if we were heads-up I might entertain a check back here, but I just don't want to give any free cards. There's so many hands that I can get value from, so many draws. Gonna try and thin the field a little bit if possible. So I bet $70. Only the small blind calls. Turn is the 9 of spades. So not exactly my favorite card, but we do have the K of spades for some potential backdoor possibilities here. Small blind checks it over to me, and I think I'm just happy to check back here and see what develops on the river. So that's what I do. I check it back. River's an offsuit K. So we end up with top set on this board. The small blind leads out for $130. I think with top set, pocket Ks too good. We do have the K of spades and eliminate some flush possibilities. We beat everything except for flush and the odd straight here in this spot. So having top set, having the K of spades and being well aware of the fact that folding is boring, I'm going to toss in the call here. Small blind rolls over A-2 with the A of spades. So we're going to win this one. Top set. Top set coming through. Would have been interesting... Would have been in a little bit tougher of a spot if we don't river the top set and the bet size is a little bit bigger. But I think with the the bet size there and the holding... Pretty straightforward call there on the river. All right, in this hand the UTG+2 player limps in. Fair amount of limping going on in this game. Lots of open limping. Definitely more so than, like, the 5/10 at the Bellagio for example. The cutoff makes it $35. I look down at pocket 5s in the big blind. Getting a pretty good price here, having a pair. Happy to make the call here, and the limper calls as well. So three ways to a flop. 9-7-3 rainbow. Check it over to the initial raiser. Who puts out a C-bet. $65. It's tough to improve with this hand here. I could very well have the best hand here, and that's definitely to be the case some percentage of the time but... It's tough to improve with an underpair to the board, so I'm just going to go ahead and let it go. Especially with a player behind me. That player also folds. We don't get to see any showdowns in this hand, but I know how much you guys like your nothingness hands, so there you have it. All right guys fast forward to about... Ten to five in the morning here. A little bit before 5:00 a.m. There's one limp. We look down at pocket aces. Pocket As at 5:00 in the morning. Doesn't get much better than that, does it? So... We're going to raise it up here and make it $40 to go. Big blind and the limper call. So three ways to a flop. 10-9-4 rainbow. Action checks to me and I go ahead and bet $80. Big blind calls and the limper folds. Heads-up to a turn card which is 5. A pretty safe card. Big blind checks to me. Going to keep firing here. this time. I bet $170. He's only got about $350 left though, so not too much action left to be had here in this hand either way no matter what he decides. Turns out his decision is to jam all in so obviously a snap call. River, offsuit Q. He rolls over K-10. So pocket As come through just in time here. Wrap up somewhat long of a session. Take this down. Always good when pocket aces hold up at 5 a.m. [Chip porn music] So we were actually in the game for $2,000. We added on an additional $500 when things went not so great right off the bat. But things turned around pretty quick after that. We made a bunch of hands. In for $2000, out for $3860. That's a profit of $1860 according to my math. Currently about 5:30 a.m. I have to check out of my hotel between 6 & 7 hours from now. I only got it for one night because it was somewhere around $85 for the one night, for tonight. For tomorrow it's like $260. So... We're going to be moving on. The question is, where are we going? And I don't have an answer at the moment. I really don't know. Everywhere around Los Angeles is obviously pretty expensive particularly on the weekends. So I'm thinking I'll probably stay like Out in the periphery if that word is applicable in this instance. So like, you know, maybe out here, like Palm Springs or maybe somewhere that I haven't been to yet. At this point it's still a mystery even to me. Speaking of mysteries... So I got the drone back from the repair shop. Looks brand-spanking-new. I go to fly the thing off the roof of the parking structure at my hotel. It takes off perfectly fine, but then... Instead of just hovering in place like it's supposed to do, this thing just starts meandering away, and not slowly.Do you know how terrifying that is? The Winning Streak Strategy
What is great about playing horse race is that you don’t have to fight against a machine or against any gambling house. You compete against all the other gamblers on a mutual bet. As far as I know most of them are losers. If you know to how to pick up horses with a good handicapping skill (You will find some tips here to help you being a good handicapper); Then the only thing left to make you a big winner on horse race is a good horse race strategy. I play many horse race strategies in my life and the Powerful Winning Streak Strategy is the best to build your bankroll. Even after you build a good bankroll you will keep on playing that strategy and will love it. Handicapping Tips There are so many things to consider to handicapping horse race. Betting horse race and watching the race horse through the wire is very exciting. With internet now, it is also possible watching the race and betting horse online. Predicting horse race result is almost a science. I learned that science for more than 25 years now. There is two major kind of horse race track. One present harness horse race and the other thoroughbred horse race. The harness race the jockey sit on a bicycle call sulky and thoroughbred the jockey sit directly on the horse. It’s a very different horse race game but at the same time, we are dealing with the same animal so there are many similitudes. Also both are mutual wagering betting pool. Two kind of harness horse: trotter and pacer. Two different thoroughbreds horse track; turf and ground. Mutual bet mean that all the money goes in one pot and will be divide by the number of winner. The horse race track take a percentage, sometimes the government takes a tax on it. At the end, an average of 70% only returns to gambler. So it is very hard to beat such disadvantage. To compare, the house edge in American roulette is 5 %. On the other end, roulette give the same odds to anybody. For horse race you can take advantage upon bad player because that money is available for you. In conclusion, in horse race good gambler an edge. To bet horse race, you should know what you are doing or you better play another game. The most important factors to consider picking a horse race winner are: the jockey, the trainer, the horse, the field condition, the starting position and the odds. There are a dime a dozen online casinos to choose from in the present day if you want to play casino games online. But the one question that most people have these days when it comes to online casinos, is how do you know that the money you deposit in the online casino you are playing at is safe. There are so many hackers these days that selecting a site without proper security and encryption would be not be a gamble, it would be equivalent to just throwing your money away. live casino gambling
Online casinos typically ask for a lot of confidential information from players, like their name, address, phone numbers and ID and other such necessary details. One must always make sure that these details are protected, and the online casinos they are entering such details in is a well protected one which cannot be cleaned out by a hacker. The one thing that you must look for in any online casino before filling out personal details or carrying out any cash deposits is if it has safe banking options which redirect to the sites of your standard banks. Another thing to look for is SSL certificates on the casino website, so that you can be sure any transaction with a third party site is a trusted one. Look for the padlock symbol on the webpage as you start a transaction online, this means that the site is secure. Some standard SSL certificate providers are Verisign, Thawte, Comodo and Entrust. Smart phones offer an almost unlimited amount of entertainment that can be taken with you wherever you go. When we consider how much the humble cell phone has evolved over the last few years, the changes are astounding. It was only ten years ago that all which was possible was to send text messages and make phone calls, now there are handsets that are more powerful and feature packed than certain desktop PCs and laptops. If you have a love of games such as bingo and poker, and are the proud owner of an android powered smartphone or an iPhone, you should explore the mobile casino tournaments that are now available.
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